Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday, 5 May 2021

THE WISDOM OF CROWDS - JAMES SUROWIECKI



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When I read any book, I scribble my comments / notes in the margins


These reflect my views / opinions about what the author is saying – including my disagreement

Often, my comments are in the nature of telling myself :

Hey ! We should try out this idea in our own business ( Head-hunting / Online Recruitment )

Following are my comments re :

  THE WISDOM OF CROWDS - JAMES SUROWIECKI      

                                                                                                          
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Page No Xiii

·         Today we are sending 2.25 million emails to persuade the recipients to register on www-and refer wwj to their friends. How will they react p can a “herd swarm/ swarm” effect happen?

Page no xiv

·         I don’t see how?

Page no xv  II

·         Can 2.25 million persons, who do not know each other, be considered a “crowd”? Can they subconscious ly act “collectively”

·         Without shining their   thoughts with others in crowd?    

Page no xv III

·         Getting 2.25 million first read our email (Next jog?) and them, get all of them –or most of them –to register on wwj, might come under “co-ordination category. This will n need follow up email saying how many ane registering each week. To.re-in force    behavior. 

·         All these exist in 2.025 million crowds also may be amongst 40 million subzones of NTT- DOCOMO

Page No Xx

·         IF I send “Actual registration” figures, every week to 2.25 million jobseekers –that would be NEW information will that make more 2 more people to register- and act a “self-fulfilling prophesy”?

·         Can I ,on WWJ introduce a “Guessing-Game” which will allow ,person registering, to enter their own “guess/Estimate / prediction” of how many will register by ( say) end sept.2004-and then keep “comparing” the collective “Expectation/ prediction “with the “Actual”

Page no 10

·         Could it happen that individuals re ceiling our email today may not know whether JAM will prove to be a great? “Hit”- but collectivity they reach this conclusion? Or vice-versa?

·         Our telling them, that we are sending this email to “2.25 million people”- is the “information” part

Page no 21

·         We have offered to publish the name of the winner on our website on Oct 12, 2004.

·         I must figure-out, whether publishing a daily bell-curve of “guesses “by participants, will/ earn

Influence the new participants to push-up the mean! Self-fulfilling prophesy?

Page no 22

·         The 2.25 million persons, to whom we are sending our promotional email today, do satisfy these criteria.

Page no 23

·         We too want to market JAM to million –including fresh graduates and someday, to factory workers. Will JAM revolutionize online recruitment?

Page no 24

·         If WWJ manages to get good response in next 10 days we will most certainly try to get some “press-coverage / leader- opinions etc.

·         WWJ is not another jobsite. It is very different but, if it succeeds, copy –cats are bound to follow.

Page no 25

·         WWJ many have solved these problems. / content. Agave nation

Page no 27

·         For WWJ there is no way we can affect & capture one front & then move to the next we have to a hack all front together!

·         Yesterday, I even talked to TV Asia & 4 days back sent an email to Amah chhagah of ATLAS interactive.  

·         Employers / jobsite / job seekers / maps. 

Page no 28

·         Almost all jobsites offer job posting / Jobsearach / resume posting / resume-search /( same business model / & same revenue- model)

Page no 29

·         First, we have to get the “crowd” (millions of jobseekers) to visit WWJ before they can distrguisg WWJ from other jobsites.

Page no 32

·         JAM is at such a crossroad.

Page no 33

·         The more a visitor of WWJ can be made to believe that he has a good “chance of visiting RS 25000/= the more he is like to “register “(-so that he can participate in the guessing game)

·         For this, we will need to drop some broad “hints”

·         Same with teachers scoring same exam paper twice!

Page no 34

·         Ha! Ha!         

·         Perhaps even lesser value effecting change.

Page no 39

·         A Desire to “conform”

·         In our “win RS- 25000/= “ Experiment ( guessing game ) ,if I were to display on WWJ A graph such as following – ( within 2/3 days from now) 

·         No of participants                 1) Frequency Distribution of participants’ “guesses

·         Would this influence the next participant to “guess” a figure/no. close to median? But would that make more persons to participate?                         

Page no 41

·         Can such behavior be replicated amongst humans? Humans need “role-models” to follow. For WWJ, who could be such role models?-those leaders? This is the idea behind “refer to friends”                            

  Page no 42

·         This is a strong argument in favor of displaying “no of registrations so far window on WWJ- especially if fig for first few days is “good” we should know in next 4/5 days.

Page no 48

·         Strategy to display “no of registrations” could back fire (for this reason) if first few days figs are “poor”

Page no 49

·         Herd mentality.

Page no 53

·         Could WWJ start a “casserole” of similar sites that would depend upon its “perceived “success no of registrations? In next 6 month, could be an early indicator of “success”

·         People registering on WWJ many exchange their experience with their friends.

·         By displaying counters for “no of registrants “ no of jobs processed no.of job-alert sent etc,we too, wish to convey that WWJ IS quite crowded.so first few days ( starting tomorrow ) are quite critical. JAM is a better solution.

Page no 55

·         Hence the need to send an email every week, to 2.25 million executives, telling them how many “Early Adopters” have registered so far- so as to start a “cascade”

·         For this reason WWJ would heavily depend upon world –of month publicity.

·         This may also work in relation to “guessing game”

Page no 56

·         I am counting on image builder for this.

·         We want to make image builder- the recruitment industry standard.

·         Which is possible only if millions of jobseekers- see value in it –and start  using

Page no 57

·         As we add more & more “profiles” to image Builder, it would altev the “rules of the game “for recruitment industry.

Page no 58

·         We two want millions of jobseekers to check-out if their friend is using “image Builder” - and upon finding that they do, start using it themselves.

Page no 64

·         We started sending first email ( to 2.25 million jobseekers at 1.00 pm ti\oday.by this time tomorrow ,over a million emails would have gone .and we will also know many “early adopt tars” have registered.

Page no 65

·         On WWJ, when a person uses “Refer to friend” feature, in effect, he is “offering his judgment “to his friends, so, we must get thousands of visitors to use this feature –simultaneously.to obtain this scenario, I have given an idea to ahi ,today-which, we will implement in 2/3 day,

·         On WWJ when a person uses “Refer to friend” feature, in effect, he is “offering his judgment” to his friends.so we must get thousands of visitors to use this feature- simultaneously.to obtain this scenario. I have given an idea to ahi, today- which, we will implement in 2/3 days

Page no 70

·         “Refer to friend” is in the nature of sharing ones’ own expenence (about WWJ) with friends.

Page no 72

·         Harnessing the “collective intelligence” of masses I have a plan to harness the knowledge of thousands of recruitment managers –once warren reuitguru launch.com

Page no 74

·         It is only by “aggregating” the usage of keywords from thousands of resumes that we have been able to generate, graphical function profiles (intelligent).

·         Salary is the “prince” of an executive .therefore, our graphical “salary profiles “would be great help to buyers (Recruitment managers) & to sellers (jobseekers).

Page no 84

·         For my thesis “work-sampling of office work” (1958) I head suggested use of such a camera but the no.of Kansas library Authorities, would not allow me to do so I had to make my observations (of what some 20 add girl were doing) at random intervals of time.

Page no 85

·         Someday, we will establish statistical “correlation coefficient” between resumes & jobprefeven, so that, as soon as a jobseeker submits his resume, we (software) could recommend “job-preferences” (anticipation).

   Page no 88

·         We have to somehow, get the message across to a large no of seekers (each of whom decides independent) that the “salary profile” gets better & better as more & more persons register. Everybody benefits.

Page no 89

·         Jobseekers who receive “relevant” jobalret would, want continue with JAM-and vice versa?

·         This would also apply to surfers visiting any website since “service-level” deteriorates, if the no.of visitors (customers) at any given point of time exceed the site’s “capacity” –But visitors of a loar do meat in person & exchange their experience!

Page no 90

·         The new feature that I have planned to add to “refer to friend “will (hopefully) encourage a “word of mouth” telephonic discussions amongst visitors of WWJ. Will it produce a “self-reflexive spiral”?

·         We will soon start publishing “daily & cumulative” stations on WWJ – and watch, to what extent these information-input, attests the “guesses”. We had only 113 persons register on first day (yesterday)

Page no 91

·         It would be interesting to graphically display, side-by-side.

·         Distribution-curve of “jobs Available”

·           “job preferences”

Page no 92

·         With minor variations, all persons registering on wwj have a common need / common objective and hopefully common experience.

·         I must bay this book.

Page no 93    

·         This is perhaps the reason why all walkers in our neighborhood garden walk in anti-clockwise

·         Direction on the walk-way / jogging track, without any  formal instructions. “Control, around “does the trick.

·         Could WWJ trigger a new” “norm by publishing data about no 07 persons “applying online from their mobiles? Apple minted by our own email campaign.

Page no 94

·         ARE you convention –bound? (Sound better than saying HIDE- Bound!) Trick for email

Page no 95

·         Jobseekers are used to conduct “free” Jobsearach on listens. Apply online” is also FREE – so free” is the norm. WWJ / JAM violate this norm. Making them “pay” is like changing the convention. What would it take to change this convention? What value cans they see in JAM?

Page No 96

·         Can I title one of my marketing emails, “jump the QUEUE- WITHOUT EMBARASSMENT?”

Page No 99

·         IN case of JAM’S “APPLY online” click, the demand does not even exist- it need to be created in first place it would be wise to start-out with a low price ( say RS-2/=) and then move-up as demand picks up.

·         Where “alter-native” exists –heaper & move convenient? (Watching movie in the comfort of your home).

Page no 100

·         This could happen with JAM it different mobile service providers charged very differently to their subscriber for, what is, essentially an identical service.

Page no 101

·         To protect entire group against freezing are tic winds, penguins huddle to gather tightly –but inner-ones, continuously moving outwards – to take their turn in the outermost circle –which has greatest exposure to cold.

·         The outer circle keeps moving inward. Process is continuous. “SWARM THCORY?

Page No 107

·         Does this mean, jobseekers will take to JAM somewhat “intuitively” – even if they cannot put a “price/ value” for the us of

1)    Aggregation of jobs from many jobsites

2)    Time saved ( by not having to visit many jobsites )

3)    Door –delivery ( on their mobiles)

4)    Convenience ( of applying from their mobiles)

5)    Relevance ( of matching jobs)

·         Will the “intuition” of many converge to make WWJ A virtual employment exchange?

Page no 119

·         Building a reputation & Reliability.

Page no 129

·         On WWJ we would have “city –wise”-and within each city, “Age wise”-and within each A        get-group, “Education-Wise” date of executive registered. And when we have large enough database-we will allow advertisers to beam (email) their messages to such sharp target groups.

Page no 130

·         Even this seems great.

Page no 138

·         In India taxes are “benefiting” corrupt beauracrats ONLY- only 5% returns to the tax-paying public- by way of roads /schools / hospitals etc.

·         This is how a great majority of Indies feel –and that is why they sheet,

Page no 139

·         Read my cirenlars “Barbell and the bad shah” (communicating for productivity) –sent to 7500

·         Employees of L & T powai sometimes in 1983/84

Page no 140
this will equally well apply to our proposed “salary-profiles.” Unless, those who contribute by making available own salary -data, get to see their profile quickly they will feel cheated

·         In case of WWJ people who do not share their salary data CANNOT see any salary profile.

·         Not more than 5% of Indians have this trust.

Page no 141

·         Indian corporates- and high network individuals must “bribe” the tax – officer, even it they have paid all their taxes honestly! Whereas tax-cheaters bribe their way out in any case.

Page no 148

·         This should make “rich” IT professionals of Bangalore / Chennai / Hyderabad /Mumbai / Pune/Gurgaon / willingly / enthusiastically, subscribe to JAM.

Page No 161

·         A jobseeker might want want to “know” all interesting jobs- everywhere or in a given country / state/ city

Page no 165

·         We have to make “personal profile” public (function) salary / Designation / tenure) – but only to those who shave their own data for constructing these profiles that would attract more & more to participate.

·         Other jobsites may follow suit.

Page no 167

·         Like no of nodes increasing the value of a network?

Page no 169

·         Independent of the community of recruitment managers, our “function profile” has little value – merit for jobseekers. Only their “acceptance” of the value of function on profiles can legitimize its usage-and desirability by candidates. This is why yesterday we sent’ emails to 42000 corporates + 1000 placement Agencies encasing a sample of imagebulder & how ,it can boost their productivity we suggested that they insist on jobseekers to submit image builder only. 

Page no 171

·         We need press – coverage by reputed Business magazines and written by well- known journalists- printed word is taken as gospel by public at large.

Page no 178

·         People see what they like to see and hear what they like to hear.

Page no 185

·         Read my today’s note to abhi: -job Alerts / quality vs. quantity.

Page no 186

·         E.g. can we have a page on WWJ, that says type here, the email ID of any friend, and we will show you, many jobalret he got yesterday” email ID job Alert.

·         Would that convince” a skeptic? Am I right in thinking that if I register on WWJ I would get plenty of jobalret?

Page no 187

·         In WWJ’s context, “Refer to friend” feature is talk tameness. A person who sends out many “refer to friend” messages, is obviously more talkative – even though the group is not meeting in person he will influence the others how can we get him to send out “Refer” to many friends?

Page no 193

·         Real-time feedback on “customer – preferences” job ADVTS are “corporate Need” – what kind of executives are in demand. Job market Analysis. We will show this to candidates, daily, graphically.

·         Against which job-advt. were there min-alerts? Obviously very few guys want these jobs!  

Page no 194

·         We are going to deliver jobalret s’ against jobs posted during last 24 hours only-no stale job!

·         This means jobseekers must look-up daily alert and decide daily –no backlog,

·         WWJ will carry only one day’s inventory! Jam subscribers too, will get brand new jobalret everyday – no duplication! 

  Page no 195

·         Someday, thousands of JAM subscribers, upon getting fresh stock daily job-alerts, docile which ones they like and want to buy (Apply online). WWJ will co-ordinate their actions.

·         Nor do we have control over job-seekers.

Page no 198

·         Where Zara “differentiae’s” from others.

Page no 206

·         I was at uni-of Kansas at that time.

Page no 207

·         Reed “commune citing for productivity” circulars to 7500 employees of L & T ( powai), during 1982/1989.

 Page no 217

·         We can in WWJ, create interesting “tenure-profile designation- level- wise. That would be of considerable academic interest to HR consultants.

Page no 221

·         This is the holy grail of WWJ & recruit guru too – to be able to “predict “which “candidate is most likely to get selected for appointment by a given corporate.

Page no 223

·         But then there are times when “market “cannot tell you anything valid, because, market does not exist –when an entirely NEW market has to be cavated - by making people “WANT” something ( a product or savvies) which, does not even exist, ( l.e: Walkman of Sony) .these are time, when are times, when a visionary must decide , all on his own-and run the risk of possible failure. These are times when colleagues cannot help- because they don’t have that vision.   


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