Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Friday, 7 May 2021

THE RISE AND FALL OF NATIONS - RUCHIR SHARMA


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When I read any book, I scribble my comments / notes in the margins


These reflect my views / opinions about what the author is saying – including my disagreement

Often, my comments are in the nature of telling myself :

Hey ! We should try out this idea in our own business ( Head-hunting / Online Recruitment )

Following are my comments re :

  THE RISE AND FALL OF NATIONS -  RUCHIR SHARMA         

                                                                                                          
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Page no – viii

·         Relevant to a blog (startup facts) ,which I have just started writing ! Kris gopalkrishana (ex –Infosys) ,says  only 5% -10% startups will grow  big /20% may just  like out living & will fail windup . April-2000

Page no 02

·         A TV channel, yesterday, displayed a streamer which read “EU plans to stop unfair cheap imports from china” 50% seraphs steel mfg. capapter IA in china right now so Chinese are dumping cheap steel all over the world. IMF forecast is ¾ % for next year.

Page no 04

·         Raw materials in the form of minerals BRICS South Africa

Page no 07

·         I suppose many of these had a very narrow / small BASE.

Page no 08

·         Read my note (2003?) “Horoscope (and other equally fictitious) stories “

·         E.g.:

·         Narenata modi looking toward to national electrons in 2019.

Page no 11

·         My just posted blog (share-your –soul: outsourcing unlimited) could be such a change.

·         Dictators have ruled most African states for past 50 yrs.

Page no 12

·         Nigeria is an example so is Sudan

·         Chaos theory Butterfly winging in Brazil brings torrential rains in India.

Page no 13

·         We have this book in our library –one of the earliest on “crowds –sourcing”

Page no 14

·         E.g.:- if GST bill finally gest congress  party support in Rajja sabha , and passes this week after a 2 year,  struggle- that can be imp.fator.  Narendra modi? Xi jinn ping? For India it is 16% of GDP.

Page no 16

·         I have argued that  1) A polish personal income tax  2) leading to more consumption  / more production  more jobs  3) also leading to more domestic savings & more money available for investment & more economic growth.

Page no 17

·         In itself, skilling 400 million people in next 5 yrs. May not result in rapid economic growth in India unless it is accompanied by huge invest meats ments in infra-structure & factories.

Page no 18

·         Narendra modi wants to raise India’s ranks from 132 to within top 50 in 5 yrs.

·         Only for 10% of workers in organized sector, no good!!

Page no 20

·         During my tenure as GM (powai) during 1979 -87 are real productivity ( at contents prices after adjusting for inflation ) was , around 3% for powai output / worker.

Page no 21

·         No fun if both, the ruminators and the denominator, rise, at some time! Output population-% what about “per capita GDP”?    

·         Make in India GOLD is the third largest imports bill for India. NDA govt of May 2014 already happening in India.

Page no 25

·         Of India‘s current population of approx. 1.3 billion Above 60 yrs. --- 8.9 % above yrs. ---0.7 %

·         Net. After deducting people dying each year from births.

·         Where I belong! Accepted more than million migrants in 2015 from Syria Iraq Libya.

Page no 27

·         Donald trump ,won Republican party presidential  ( Nominatran last week-and promptly repeated his promise to build a thick wall along US- Mexican border ! on the same issue,

·         British citizen voted to get out of DU, in a reverend um on 23/06/2016 (brexit) which will goutily happen by END OF 2018. NOT FOR INDIA.

Page no 28

·         India’s educated can “climb over” though use of virtual wall- remote servicing of EU /USA / japan. See my blog “BACK factory to the world “

·         India produces 3.5 million graduates each year. Only 200.000 /= get jobs.

·         More people need more goods & services. it is obvious,

Page no 29

·         Despite this correlation (else-where) for a large % of Nigerians decent life is a distant dream!! Due to corruption of its leaders.

Page no 30

·         But there are no jobs (to be “worked”) for the working age population of India! Millions of these young people are jobless. Only redeeming feature is that NOW, the banks are giving out loans to them to become self –employed in this year, under MUDRA  scheme, loans have been given to some 35 million (globes) persons, amounting to RS. 1.22 lakh errors, Target rose to RS. 1.8 lakh cores

·         MAY not bother about growth of its own “working Age population” –by exporting to African countries, to arrow its own economy.    

Page no 31

·         Or generate “self-Employment “ what I have repeatedly stressed in my blogs ( each-sent as E- Mail to NDA Ministers ) I believe PM , Narendra modi understands this in entire 2015, India added only 1.2 million jobs !! 10% of 12 million needing. Strll 80% in India! 

·         Wrong! Bear by one million. Opportunity for India to offer all kinds of REMOTE services

Page no 36

·         Could be one of the reasons, why gem any accepted more than 1 million migrants in 2015 Iraq / sirya / AF / pakiststan etc. I taly is trying this,

Page no 38

·         Same problem with Italy & Greece, where can retire event 55!! .

Page no 40

·         Brazil economy is in bad shops right now.  

Page no 42

·         No such restrict in India

Page no 43

·         But many more on farms.

Page no 44

·         There is no sing of war ending anytime soon.

Page no 45

·         I am sure those migrants from across the med. Sea are also aware of this.

Page no 46

·         Like decline of PARSI community in India from 1.5 L to 0.5 L IN PAST 15 YRS. Due to in –breeding.

Page no 48

·         A few months back, Thai govt announced plans to “import” 1.5 million workers from Myanmar. Due to local resistance, it was forced to drop this plan.

·         It has given refuge to over 2.5 million.

Page no 49

·         With 3.5 million students graduating from UNI every year, India could be a “source” especially since, only 2 lakh get locally. Read my today‘s blog: job fair offline or online?

Page no 50

·         They are trying to get low-paid manual workers. Less educated manual laboukers.

Page no 51

·         Some decades back, at London ‘s Airport , I found that nearly all the “cleaner/sweepers / janitoes”were un- educated women from HARYANA ( INDIA) !!

·         Many decades back, HR mgr. of Bareli (India) told me, if labor unions were to permit he would replace all of his Italian engineers with Indian Eng.!

Page no 53

·         He is still talking about it in Aug-2016

Page no 55

·         Finished reading 3 weeks back. So the danger may come when robots start doing multiple tasks.

·         At 4.9 % in USA, help of what it was in 2009.

Page no 58

·         Now IMF chief some 3 months back sandal Arabia said, it is shifting emphasis -sectors, other than GAS!!!

Page no 59

·         E.g.:

·         Brazil & Venezuela charges Madura / Dilma Rauself taking impeachment.

·         Someday we too will regret OROP approval few months back.

Page no 60

·         After a failed “Milled coup “in turkey 4 weeks ago, Endogen has declared emergency, SACKED 60.000/= officers (in court judges) and “cleaning-up “military.

·         India is going thru same dilemma right now. Portugal I taly Greece Spain?

Page no 61

·         Fort the moment, modi seems so.

Page no 64

·         Right person, at the right time, in the right place

Page no 65

·         The last thing emerging countries should aim for IT is for better to enable people to “Earn” and pay for their own welfare.

·         What India still suffers from India is doing all of these right now.

Page no 67

·         Personal income TAX is the root cause of all corruption and must be abolished that would be The Green Reform.

·         GST promises to do this for India in next 3 years.

·         What (new law) India just passed a few weeks back.

·         AS IMF & EU, are doing with Greece for past 2 years.

Page no 69

·         Narendra modi formed NDA govt in May 2014 when oil prices had started falling ,over the next 18 months oil prices fell from $ 120/= laved to $ 40 / barred saving India billions of dollars of Exchange good luck ?    

 Page no 70

·         This may not happen in India in 2019 national elections; sine ruling NDA /BJP GOVT has, lost 3/4 state Elections, during its past 18 month rule, it will be forced to continue with reforms,

Page no 72

·         The failed “military coup” A weeks back, has given him the “opportunity” to further curtail civic liberties AS of this weeks, total “offers “sacked is 81000!! 

Page no 73

·         What congress /UPA had become, over 60 years.

Page no 80

·         Immediate case: Raghu ram Rajan RBI governor who goes back to teaching next month!!

Page no 85

·         Most of this has turned in to NPA for chines banks!!

·         They are! Look where India is after 67 years of demo crazy! Demo Carly is no more (for Indians) than a “right” to elect (once-in-5 years) which politicians will loot them derive them, kill them, rape them!! 1.2 million Children dying of starvation, each year. They don’t’ care who feeds them!!

·         IT is a pity, leader like Narendra modi has to get elected!!

Page no 86

·         Good way to such up a poor decision of a well-meaning dictator is better than NO decision of a demo

·         Critic institution.

·         True the emphasis, is on “stale” not on political system.

Page no 87

·         Must have happened when those autocrats, become stale or corrupt or both, and tried to hang on to power.

·         So point is proved!! 75%

Page no 88

·         But despite being the “largest demo crazy in the world “why has India “Hindu rate of growth “for 60 years? So it is not enough to have strong demo critic traditions if you have thoroughly corrupt politicians. By now totally corrupt.   

Page no 90

·         India is looking at Narendra modi, right now.

Page no 92

·         What gives rise to desperation and eventually, militancy, what is also happening in Kashmir, last 6 wks.?

·         Now spread to south Sudan, Nigeria Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan.

Page no 94

·         For Namo right now good luck consists of very low oil prices!

 Page no 95

·         A couple of months back , just after Britain voted in tavor of BREXIT ,uk  chancel or osbome announced intention to LOWER corporate income TAX , from current 20%  3) to 15% to prevent flight of capital out of Britten.   

Page no 96

·         Right now India seems to be bending backward to attract investments.

Page no 97

·         No currency of own.

·         Giving fish instead of teaching how to fish!

Page no 99

·         What is how happening to s. Arabia and other opec countries due to slumping oil prices.

Page no 100

·         Q: How much of that “badly acquired” wealth got re- invested prod dive.

Page no 101

·         What Donald Trump is trying to capitalize on during his campaign? 

Page no 103

·         No body- no matter how rich- can “eat” his wealth, nor take it with to “heaven”!! Only question (to be asked) is: - Did he “look-up wealth in unproductive assets or did he deploy it to expand his businesses / industries? (Creators of jobs & income for poor & middle class)

Page no 104

·         In 30 yrs., 90% disappeared.

Page no 105

·         E.g.: mukesh Ambani.s Announcement re = launch of Reliance jio (mobile service) ,from 5th sept, in 18000 cities and 200.000/= villages, with plan to cover 90% of India’s .

·         Population by next march All, at investment of 1.34.000/ = cores of Rupees!!

Page no 106

·         Suboto Roy Sahara Read my recent blog “policy paralysis is avoidable”

Page no 112

·         From goa and Karnataka millions of tons of iron ore got mined illegally and got shipped out between.

Page no 116

·         !! May because these were earliest “industrialized” nations, were sons took over father‘s business.     

Page no 266

·         For guidance’s nearly, all foreign countries must feel “Expensive”

Page no 267

·         Some Indian visitors to Thailand still do.

Page no 268

·         May be India is at this stage, right now.

·         What happened to pouted, ital. by, Greece, Spain (pogs) and continues to haunt them.

Page no 270

·         I think toppling India’s Total import bill is: 1) oil 2) Electrons 3) gold 


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